Sunday, October 31, 2010

Mortgages a Bellweather on Property Rights?

Businessweek recently ran an opening article on the recent foreclosure debacle. The center piece of the article was focused on how the mortgage industry has been unable to effectively upgrade title record systems out of paper and into a more modern system. This was one of the major contributors to the foreclosure debacle. Another point the author comments on is how the ability to enforce and rely on property rights is critical to successful, developed, capitalistic systems.

I think the author is completely right in arguing that the current mess in mortgage re-sale and packaging has weakened the sanctity of property rights. These things changed hands so often and were so poorly documented that in some cases no one can figure out who ultimately owns what and even if they can they don't have documents proving that ownership that are acceptable to the courts.

Our government has taken steps into the private system that have only served to cloud the issue of property rights. They have weakened our rights to own and benefit from the use of property in the form of regulation, taxation, and bailouts. While some of these actions can arguably be justified (more or less) by the extraordinary circumstances of the recent financial crisis - the question we need to be asking ourselves is have we undermined the very system that made our nation great?

Strong and clear property rights, along with the courts' respect for contracts, are probably the two single most important facets of our economy and legal system and they have allowed us to grow as we have. We shouldn't be messing with them unless we have very carefully thought through the consequences...which I don't believe we have done.

Economy Set To Grow in Q4?

Most economists are currently worried about deflation and are expecting tepid economic growth through the rest of this year and into next year. I just found this article, M2 Velocity Suggests A Stronger Q4 GDP, which uses the M2 measure of money supply to comment on Q4 2010 economic growth. Using this measure the author predicts somewhat higher economic growth than the current consensus among economists. The logic behind the argument is quite sound and it's an interesting approach to analyzing near-term growth forecasts. I think we are still more likely to see growth closer to the consensus, because I believe consumers and business will likely continue hoarding cash (increases in the demand for money) until after the elections end and we see what the new make up of Congress will mean for policy.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Mankiw on Taxes

Dr. Gregory Mankiw recently wrote an article that ran in the New York Times. In the article he describes how taxes impact the decisions of high-income earners regarding how much work to perform. It's a simple and quick explanation, but dead on.